E-commerce growth and Gen Z shopping habits redefine 2025’s holiday season
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A new reality is emerging in the world of holiday retail. Black Friday 2025 has confirmed what industry analysts and retail leaders have been sensing all year: ecommerce is no longer just an alternative to traditional shopping. It is the dominant force shaping how Americans plan, search and ultimately buy during the busiest season of the year. The strong performance of digital platforms this year, driven in large part by AI tools and Gen Z engagement, offers a signal that holiday shopping is entering a new phase.
A record year for online sales
According to Adobe Analytics, US consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, marking a 9.1 percent increase over the previous year. That figure exceeded Adobe’s own forecast and reflected a broader pattern already seen on Thanksgiving Day, where spending also topped expectations. Between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. alone, shoppers were spending at a pace of $12.5 million per minute online.
AI-driven ecommerce emerged as a central player in this year’s surge. Adobe reported an 805 percent increase in AI-generated traffic to retail websites compared to Black Friday 2024. Salesforce added that $3 billion in US sales on Black Friday were directly influenced by AI-powered recommendations or agents. These tools are increasingly shaping browsing behavior and purchase decisions, as consumers look for real-time price comparisons, product availability, and delivery estimates.
Retailers who invested early in AI-driven ecommerce platforms are now reaping rewards. The ability to dynamically adjust offers based on behavior, location, or time of day provided a crucial advantage in an environment where consumers are more discerning than ever.
Physical stores see stabilization, not collapse
The outlook for physical retail was less clear. RetailNext reported that in-store foot traffic declined by 3.6 percent nationwide, suggesting a modest pullback compared to 2024. However, another firm, Pass_by, noted a 1.17 percent increase in physical retail visits, including a 7.9 percent jump at department stores.
These conflicting metrics underscore a more complex story. In-store shopping is not disappearing, it is evolving. Analysts pointed to a shift in consumer behavior toward what they described as “surgical precision.” Shoppers arrived at stores with clear intentions, often driven by online research, and were focused on completing specific purchases rather than browsing widely.
The return to department stores, which had seen years of declining traffic, may reflect renewed interest in consolidated shopping experiences. The convenience of accessing multiple product categories under one roof resonates with time-sensitive consumers navigating a high-pressure promotional season.
Gen Z shoppers are redefining the season
Perhaps the most significant trend of the season is the role of Gen Z in reshaping how retail functions. Analysts from strategy firm Kearney reported a strong showing of younger shoppers at malls and major retail centers, particularly in the morning hours of Black Friday. Retailers targeting tweens, teens and young adults were among the biggest early winners.
Whereas previous generations may have treated Black Friday as a single-day event, Gen Z views it as one moment within a longer value-hunting journey. Many are combining online research with in-store visits and are willing to navigate multiple platforms to optimize price, timing and availability. Shoppers told analysts that they started searching for deals at midnight, waited in digital queues, and used in-store pickup to minimize wait times.
The average purchase size was also telling. Consumers walked away from stores with one to two bags, suggesting control, not exuberance. Shoppers are more strategic, and Gen Z, despite being digital natives, does not avoid physical retail entirely. Instead, they integrate it into a broader, tech-enabled shopping process.
Inflation and tariffs shape spending patterns
While sales data shows positive year-over-year gains, underlying economic forces still weigh heavily on consumer decision-making. According to Salesforce, average product prices rose 7 percent on Black Friday compared to 2024, while order volume declined by 1 percent. The higher spending totals, therefore, reflect inflation and tariff impacts more than increased consumption.
Caila Schwartz, director of consumer insights at Salesforce, framed it as a nuanced signal for the economy. Shoppers are not pulling back entirely, but they are prioritizing value and avoiding unnecessary purchases. Categories such as electronics, toys and apparel led the charge, often with discounts in the 20 to 50 percent range. However, the days of 60 percent markdowns appear to be waning, as retailers seek to protect margins.
The message from the data is clear. This is not a recessionary holiday season, nor is it one of unrestrained spending. It is one of recalibration, driven by inflation-aware shoppers with digital tools at their disposal.
The new retail equation
As the rest of Cyber Week and the broader holiday season unfolds, the implications for retailers are profound. Online platforms that prioritize user experience, inventory transparency and intelligent promotions will continue to outperform. Meanwhile, physical retailers that lean into hybrid modelssuch as buy online, pick up in store, can still attract meaningful foot traffic.
Retailers can no longer rely on single-day spikes or blanket promotions. Instead, they must cultivate ongoing relationships with shoppers who are data-literate and motivated by value, not novelty. The 2025 season will be remembered not just for record sales, but for redefining the terms of engagement between buyer and seller.
The blending of channels, the precision of purchases, and the steady integration of AI into the shopping journey all point toward a holiday retail model that is more calculated, more tech-driven, and less impulsive. Retailers who understand that shift will be best positioned to navigate what comes next.
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