Top 8 Black Friday and Cyber Monday trends retailers should prepare for in 2026
Black Friday and Cyber Monday remain two of the most commercially significant events in the retail calendar. However, changing consumer expectations, advances in artificial intelligence and increasingly complex fulfilment requirements are reshaping how retailers approach the peak shopping period.
The scale of the opportunity remains substantial. According to Adobe Analytics, US consumers spent a record $44.2 billion online during Cyber Week 2025, an increase of 7.7% year on year. Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation (NRF) recorded 202.9 million shoppers across the five-day Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
As retailers prepare for 2026, understanding emerging Black Friday trends and Cyber Monday trends will be essential to capturing demand without compromising profitability.
Here are eight developments that should influence retail strategies this holiday season.
1. Artificial intelligence becomes central to product discovery
Artificial intelligence is moving beyond a supporting role in ecommerce to become an increasingly important influence on purchasing decisions.
Adobe reported that traffic to US retail websites originating from generative AI tools increased by 693.4% during the 2025 holiday season compared with the previous year. Although these referrals represented a relatively small proportion of overall traffic, their rapid growth demonstrates how consumers are adopting AI-powered services to compare products, research purchases and identify discounts.
Salesforce also found that AI and agents influenced 20% of global Cyber Week orders in 2025 through personalised recommendations and conversational customer service.
For retailers, this creates new requirements around product information, search visibility and customer engagement.
Accurate product descriptions, structured data, availability information and competitive pricing will become increasingly important as AI assistants help consumers navigate purchasing options.
Retailers should also consider deploying AI-powered customer service tools capable of responding to questions about delivery, product specifications and returns during periods of exceptional demand.
The commercial opportunity extends beyond conversion. AI can help retailers anticipate customer requirements and deliver more relevant shopping experiences, provided that product data remains reliable and customer information is handled responsibly.
2. Value-conscious shoppers place greater emphasis on genuine discounts
Consumers continue to demonstrate a willingness to spend during major promotional events, but retailers face growing pressure to justify the value of their offers.
The NRF reported that shoppers spent an average of $337.86 on holiday-related purchases during Thanksgiving weekend 2025, compared with $315.56 the previous year.
NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay described consumers as “focused on value” and responsive to compelling promotions.
This suggests that strong purchasing activity should not be mistaken for reduced price sensitivity.
Retailers preparing for Black Friday 2026 should prioritise transparent discounting, clearly communicated savings and carefully selected promotional products.
Rather than applying widespread reductions across entire ranges, businesses can use customer insights to identify categories where promotional investment is most likely to stimulate incremental demand.
Bundled products, exclusive merchandise and loyalty incentives can also strengthen perceived value without relying entirely on aggressive price reductions.
Importantly, retailers must ensure that promotional claims comply with applicable pricing and consumer protection requirements.
For merchandising teams, the challenge will be balancing compelling offers with sustainable margins, particularly when shoppers can compare prices across multiple retailers within seconds.
3. Black Friday evolves into a longer promotional season
The traditional distinction between Black Friday and the wider holiday shopping period continues to weaken.
Consumers increasingly research products and assess promotional opportunities weeks before the main event, encouraging retailers to launch campaigns earlier.
Salesforce reported that US online sales increased 3% year on year between October 1 and November 15, 2025, while global sales rose 6% over the same period.
The company also observed substantial growth in digital browsing activity, indicating that consumers were researching products and preparing purchasing decisions ahead of Cyber Week.
For retailers, this extended shopping cycle requires a more sophisticated promotional calendar.
Early-access events, loyalty-member offers and targeted campaigns can help businesses capture demand before competitors intensify their marketing activity.
However, extending promotional periods also creates risks. Continuous discounting can weaken urgency, encourage customers to delay purchases and place additional pressure on margins.
Retailers should therefore distinguish between early customer engagement and their most competitive promotional offers.
Successful campaigns will combine advance product discovery with carefully timed incentives, ensuring that Black Friday and Cyber Monday retain their ability to generate concentrated purchasing activity.
4. Mobile commerce and frictionless checkout become essential
Mobile commerce is now fundamental to holiday retail performance.
According to Salesforce, mobile devices accounted for 70% of online orders globally and in the US during Cyber Week 2025. Mobile wallets were used for 27% of global orders and 29% of US orders.
These figures reinforce the importance of delivering seamless shopping experiences across smartphones.
Retailers must ensure that product pages load quickly, navigation remains intuitive and checkout processes require minimal effort.
Complicated forms, unexpected delivery charges and limited payment options can create unnecessary friction at the point of purchase.
Digital wallets, guest checkout functionality and clear delivery information can help simplify transactions, particularly when consumers are shopping across multiple retailers.
Mobile optimisation also extends to merchandising. Product imagery, promotional messaging and stock availability must remain accessible on smaller screens.
Retailers should test their websites and applications under anticipated peak traffic conditions before promotional campaigns begin.
As mobile purchasing becomes increasingly established, businesses that fail to deliver convenient digital experiences risk losing customers despite offering competitive prices.
5. Social commerce plays a larger role in purchasing decisions
Social media is becoming an increasingly important entry point into the retail purchasing journey.
Salesforce reported that social platforms generated 15% of global digital traffic to retailers’ websites during Cyber Week 2025.
TikTok accounted for 9% of global social referral traffic during the period, representing a 55% year-on-year increase in its share.
This growth highlights the expanding influence of social platforms on product discovery, particularly for visually engaging categories such as fashion, beauty and consumer electronics.
For retailers, successful social commerce strategies require more than publishing promotional advertisements.
Creator partnerships, product demonstrations, authentic customer content and interactive shopping experiences can help businesses communicate value and build purchasing confidence.
Retailers should also ensure that social campaigns connect directly with relevant product pages and accurate inventory information.
A compelling social media promotion can quickly generate demand, but poor fulfilment or unavailable products may undermine the customer experience.
As competition for attention intensifies, retailers will need to measure social commerce performance against actual sales and profitability rather than relying exclusively on engagement metrics.
6. Omnichannel shopping strengthens the role of physical stores
Despite the continued expansion of ecommerce, physical stores remain essential to Black Friday performance.
The NRF recorded 129.5 million in-store shoppers during Thanksgiving weekend 2025, compared with 134.9 million online shoppers. These groups overlap, demonstrating the importance of serving customers across multiple channels.
Black Friday itself attracted 80.3 million in-store shoppers, reinforcing the event’s significance for physical retail.
Retailers should therefore avoid treating online and offline operations as separate promotional activities.
Connected inventory systems, consistent pricing and flexible fulfilment options can help customers move between channels without disruption.
Click-and-collect services offer particular advantages by combining digital convenience with the immediacy of physical collection.
Stores can also support online operations through local fulfilment, returns processing and customer service.
For merchandising teams, accurate stock visibility will be critical. Customers need confidence that products advertised online are available at their chosen location.
Retailers that successfully integrate their physical and digital operations will be better positioned to capture demand while managing operational pressures during peak trading.
7. Flexible payment options influence purchasing behaviour
Payment flexibility is becoming another important consideration in holiday retail.
Adobe reported that buy now, pay later services accounted for $20 billion in US online spending during the 2025 holiday season, an increase of 9.8% year on year.
Cyber Monday alone generated $1.03 billion in purchases using these services, establishing a new daily record.
The findings indicate that alternative payment methods are playing an increasingly significant role in how consumers manage holiday purchases.
For retailers, offering a suitable range of payment options can support checkout convenience, particularly for higher-value products.
However, businesses must balance commercial benefits against transaction costs, regulatory obligations and responsible lending considerations.
Clear payment terms and transparent customer communications are essential.
Retailers should also examine the relationship between payment methods, average order values and returns to understand their actual commercial contribution.
The objective should not simply be to encourage greater spending, but to remove unnecessary barriers for customers who have already decided to purchase.
8. Predictive analytics and fulfilment efficiency become competitive advantages
Behind every successful Black Friday campaign is a complex operational challenge involving inventory, logistics and customer expectations.
Retailers must anticipate demand across products, locations and sales channels while avoiding excessive stockholding or costly shortages.
Predictive analytics can support these decisions by combining historical sales information with current browsing behaviour, promotional plans and inventory data.
The growing use of AI across retail operations also creates opportunities to improve forecasting and automate routine customer service activities.
Salesforce reported that agent-driven customer service conversations increased 55% week on week during Cyber Week 2025, reflecting the growing role of automation during peak demand.
Nevertheless, technology alone cannot resolve operational weaknesses.
Retailers need reliable stock information, realistic delivery commitments and effective coordination with logistics partners.
Clear returns policies and proactive order communications are equally important to maintaining customer confidence.
Merchandising teams should work closely with supply chain and ecommerce colleagues to identify potential bottlenecks before promotions launch.
Ultimately, retailers that combine accurate forecasting with dependable fulfilment will be better placed to convert seasonal demand into profitable sales and lasting customer relationships.
Preparing for a more competitive holiday shopping season
Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2026 will test retailers’ ability to combine technological innovation with commercial discipline.
Artificial intelligence, mobile commerce and social shopping are changing how consumers discover and purchase products. At the same time, value expectations, operational efficiency and connected retail experiences remain central to success.
The most effective strategies will extend beyond generating short-term sales volumes. Retailers must use customer insights, targeted promotions and reliable fulfilment to protect profitability while delivering convenient shopping experiences.
For businesses preparing for the next peak trading period, the priority is clear: invest in the capabilities that improve both customer experience and operational performance long after Cyber Monday has ended.
